| White | (6 4) | 24/18 13/9 | |
|
| 2. | Orange | (6 1) | 13/7* 8/7 |
|
| White | (3 3) | bar/22 24/21 6/3(2) | |
|
| 3. | Orange | (6 5) | 24/13 |
|
| Move 3 White |
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|
| Pip: 152 | ||
| Pip: 149 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | 21/15 13/9 | 0.045 | |
| 0.3% 10.9% 51.7% 48.3% 9.0% 0.3% | ||||
| 2 | 3 | 22/16 13/9 | 0.026 (-0.019) | |
| 0.3% 10.2% 51.6% 48.4% 9.9% 0.3% | ||||
| * | 3 | 3 | 21/11 | 0.015 (-0.031) |
| 0.3% 10.4% 50.9% 49.1% 9.9% 0.3% | ||||
|
Kit does not like the 9 point being 6 away form his 3 point, but two blots in the outfield leave 10 very good hitting numbers to the desperate white prisoner on the ace point plus the numbers pointing on the white straggler or even hitting lose. Better is making the 9 point and a jump over the mini block. 21/15 is better because it leaves less double-hit numbers. |
| 4. | Orange | (1 1) | 24/23 6/5(3) |
|
| Move 4 White |
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|
| Pip: 142 | ||
| Pip: 145 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | 13/9 13/11 | 0.029 | |
| 0.4% 11.1% 51.9% 48.1% 11.1% 0.3% | ||||
| 2 | 3 | 13/9 11/9 | -0.002 (-0.031) | |
| 0.3% 9.4% 50.2% 49.8% 9.2% 0.2% | ||||
| * | 3 | 3 | 11/7 9/7 | -0.021 (-0.051) |
| 0.3% 9.1% 49.7% 50.3% 9.7% 0.3% | ||||
|
Very interesting 1 vs 1 back checkers, 2 vs 2 boards. Four approaches here with substantial difference in equity. 1. Make an inside point, filling the prime, but stripping the 6 and 8 points and leaving blots. 8 shots almost win for Black. 2. Make the bar point, filling the prime, but failing to bring down any builder and making it difficult to make an additional inside point. 3. Play 11/9, 13/9 threatening to make amy of the open bar, 5, or 4 points or escape the straggler. 4. Make 2 outfield points thereby making all escape attempts except the 55 meet a very strong opposition. The 4th opition is the best. This makes the position a good problem. Difficult to assess. |
| Move 5 Orange |
|
|
| Pip: 136 | ||
| Pip: 145 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | 23/16 | -0.013 | |
| 0.2% 6.1% 50.1% 49.9% 8.1% 0.2% | ||||
| * | 2 | 3 | 13/6 | -0.068 (-0.055) |
| 0.3% 9.5% 46.1% 53.9% 9.4% 0.3% | ||||
| 3 | 2 | 13/9 13/10 | -0.116 (-0.103) | |
| 0.2% 9.6% 45.4% 54.6% 12.6% 0.3% | ||||
|
2 pips behind, but I need to utilize the jumping number. The runner also covers outfield. The builder can wait. Playing 23/16 would also be a partial refutation of White's mistake on the previous roll, failing to make two outside points. |
| White | (3 1) | 8/5 6/5 | |
|
| 6. | Orange | (4 1) | 13/8 |
|
| White | (4 4) | 8/4(2) 6/2*(2) | |
|
|
The timing changes. White must make the 4 point. He now has less chances to hold the blockade and more chances to be attacked because of his racing lead. In such a case, the four point is very important. The remaining two 4s may be played: 13/5, 13/9(2) or 19/23(2)*. 13/5 is the weakest because it brings a checker behind the target 8 point. I would play automatically 13/9(2), but that is because shifting from the 6 point is so uncommon. This is a world master play, giving some support to the vulnerable white checker on Black's 3 point. |
| 7. | Orange | (6 2) | bar/19 8/6 |
|
| White | (4 3) | 13/6* | |
|
| 8. | Orange | (5 1) | bar/19* |
|
| White | (4 3) | bar/22 13/9 | |
|
| 9. | Orange | (3 3) | 19/16*/13 13/10(2) |
|
| White | (3 2) | bar/22 7/5 | |
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|
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||
| Pip: 132 | ||
| Pip: 115 | ||
| 10. | Orange | Double |
|
| White | Pass | |
|
| Cube action equity | |||
| 3-Ply | Money equity: | 0.640 | |
| 0.2% 6.7% 79.5% 20.5% 1.9% 0.0% | |||
| Double decision | Good enough: | Huge | |
| Too good to double: | 0% | ||
| Take decision | Current Cube | Doubled Cube | Borderline |
| Equities | 0.647 | 0.643 | 0.537 |
| Proper cube action: Double, pass | |||
|
Lost my market. |
| svilo wins 1 point. |
