| 1. | Orange | (2 1) | 24/23 13/11 |
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| White | (6 5) | 24/13 | |
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| 2. | Orange | (5 3) | 8/3 6/3 |
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| White | (3 2) | 13/8 | |
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Interesting. Race is even. White has the one-man-back asset. Black has a 2vs1 board asset plus a tremendous diversification. Three options here: Play safe - 13/8 Diversify and stay back - agressive 13/11, 13/10 Compromise - 24/21, 13/11 The safe play does not jeopardise the one-man-back asset, waits for fly shots, runnung and point making numbers and, in a way, safeties the lonely blot. In some variations Black may "get mad" and start a blitz if White has blots. It is important to "vision" such plays. |
| 3. | Orange | (4 2) | 8/4 6/4 |
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| White | (5 1) | 24/23 13/8 | |
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| 4. | Orange | (1 1) | 8/6 6/5(2) |
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There is a very fine reckoning here - Most of the "keep him off balance" moves have the same value as making the 5 point. I made it, intending to double next turn if he does not hit me, run away or make a point. |
| White | (6 4) | 23/13 | |
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| Move 5 Orange |
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| Pip: 135 | ||
| Pip: 146 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | 13/10 11/6 | 0.013 | |
| 0.5% 12.4% 47.1% 52.9% 5.8% 0.3% | ||||
| 2 | 3 | 13/8 13/10 | 0.012 (-0.000) | |
| 0.6% 12.8% 47.1% 52.9% 6.4% 0.3% | ||||
| * | 5 | 3 | 23/20 13/8 | -0.030 (-0.042) |
| 0.4% 10.4% 46.0% 54.0% 5.9% 0.3% | ||||
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Moving the back checkers gives White more numbers to point on a checker or double hit. Or to play behind them. |
| Move 5 White |
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| Pip: 135 | ||
| Pip: 138 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | 8/2 8/6 | -0.352 | |
| 0.2% 4.3% 40.8% 59.2% 20.3% 0.7% | ||||
| * | 2 | 3 | 13/5* | -0.381 (-0.029) |
| 0.2% 5.4% 40.2% 59.8% 23.0% 0.7% | ||||
| 3 | 1 | 8/2 6/4 | -0.529 (-0.176) | |
| 0.1% 3.2% 34.9% 65.1% 24.7% 0.9% | ||||
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In this kind of position safety is the first thing to consider. 8/6, 8/2 is ugly but better ... I admit I would also choose Kit's play. |
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||
| Pip: 127 | ||
| Pip: 143 | ||
| Cube action equity | Missed double | ||
| 3-Ply | Money equity: | 0.379 | |
| 0.8% 23.2% 59.9% 40.1% 5.6% 0.2% | |||
| Double decision | Good enough: | 109% | |
| Too good to double: | 0% | ||
| Take decision | Current Cube | Doubled Cube | Borderline |
| Equities | 0.383 | 0.370 | 0.594 |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||
| 6. | Orange | (5 4) | bar/20* 13/9 |
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| White | (4 4) | Can't move | |
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| Pip: 147 | ||
| Pip: 134 | ||
| 7. | Orange | Double |
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| White | Pass | |
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| Cube action equity | Wrong double | ||
| 3-Ply | Money equity: | 0.946 | |
| 1.3% 40.7% 77.9% 22.1% 3.1% 0.1% | |||
| Double decision | Good enough: | Huge | |
| Too good to double: | 234% | ||
| Take decision | Current Cube | Doubled Cube | Borderline |
| Equities | 0.952 | 0.938 | 0.623 |
| Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass | |||
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I should just have waited to see how he enters ... I was disgusted with my cube blunder on my previous roll and I made another ... |
| svilo wins 1 point. |
