| White | (5 2) | 24/22 13/8 | |
|
| 2. | Orange | (5 5) | 8/3*(2) 6/1*(2) |
|
| White | (4 4) | bar/17*(2) | |
|
|
Ah, I was just pumping my muscles for a blitz... |
| Move 3 Orange |
|
|
| Pip: 148 | ||
| Pip: 164 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | bar/23 24/23 | -0.347 | |
| 0.3% 9.1% 36.3% 63.7% 13.3% 0.5% | ||||
| * | 2 | 3 | bar/22 | -0.384 (-0.037) |
| 0.2% 8.7% 36.0% 64.0% 14.8% 0.6% | ||||
| 3 | 3 | bar/23 6/5 | -0.420 (-0.073) | |
| 0.3% 8.8% 35.4% 64.6% 16.3% 0.7% | ||||
|
In a position where I own my ace point I must leave oponent's ace point ASAP. In this kind of positions (after failed blitz), one can probably count his checkers on both ace poinnts to determine whether a position is a take or a pass ... |
|
|
||
| Pip: 148 | ||
| Pip: 161 | ||
| White | Double | |
|
| 4. | Orange | Take |
|
| Cube action equity | |||
| 3-Ply | Money equity: | 0.339 | |
| 0.6% 14.8% 63.8% 36.2% 8.7% 0.2% | |||
| Double decision | Good enough: | Huge | |
| Too good to double: | 1% | ||
| Take decision | Current Cube | Doubled Cube | Borderline |
| Equities | 0.378 | 0.276 | 0.370 |
| Proper cube action: Double, take | |||
|
With an advantage, Kit turns it into a DMP. |
| White | (4 1) | 13/8 | |
|
| Move 5 Orange |
|
|
| Pip: 143 | ||
| Pip: 161 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | 24/21(2) 13/10(2) | -0.152 | |
| 0.3% 9.9% 42.4% 57.6% 9.5% 0.4% | ||||
| 2 | 3 | 24/21 13/10(3) | -0.167 (-0.015) | |
| 0.4% 11.2% 41.6% 58.4% 13.4% 0.6% | ||||
| * | 3 | 3 | 13/10(3) 10/7 | -0.175 (-0.024) |
| 0.5% 11.8% 41.2% 58.8% 13.5% 0.7% | ||||
|
Do I really need to step up? I am behind and I will give him room for 6s 5s and 4 to play behind. And this is the DMP. I am not sure about Snowie estimate here. Still, moving up makes a more compact position to play from. I still think Black needs to keep all his hitting chances and to leave White the 22 and 44 jokers. |
| White | (5 5) | 13/8 8/3*(3) | |
|
| 6. | Orange | (5 1) | bar/20 6/5 |
|
| White | (6 2) | 13/5* | |
|
| 7. | Orange | (4 2) | bar/23 24/20* |
|
| Move 7 White |
|
|
| Pip: 135 | ||
| Pip: 145 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | bar/20*/14 | 0.224 | |
| 1.1% 22.0% 61.2% 38.8% 11.0% 0.4% | ||||
| * | 2 | 3 | bar/20* 8/2* | 0.184 (-0.041) |
| 1.6% 27.6% 59.2% 40.8% 13.8% 0.6% | ||||
| 3 | 2 | bar/20* 13/7 | 0.128 (-0.097) | |
| 1.3% 21.7% 56.4% 43.6% 13.4% 0.6% | ||||
|
It is difficult to assess that 8/2 (hitting a second checker) is better at DMP, leading in the race, when the oponent has a better board, leaving a direct shot, stripping the 8 point, A good problem |
| 8. | Orange | (4 2) | bar/21 bar/23* |
|
| White | (5 3) | bar/20 13/10 | |
|
|
Well, I am a poor man, I would not just quander my racing advantage, playing 13/10. |
| 9. | Orange | (5 4) | 24/15* |
|
| White | (5 1) | bar/20 3/2* | |
|
| 10. | Orange | (6 2) | bar/23* 21/15 |
|
| Move 10 White |
|
|
| Pip: 171 | ||
| Pip: 146 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | bar/17 | -0.097 | |
| 0.4% 11.7% 45.1% 54.9% 12.8% 0.4% | ||||
| * | 2 | 3 | bar/20 6/3 | -0.158 (-0.061) |
| 0.3% 10.6% 42.1% 57.9% 14.6% 0.5% | ||||
| 3 | 2 | bar/20 8/5* | -0.222 (-0.125) | |
| 0.4% 10.7% 38.9% 61.1% 21.5% 0.8% | ||||
|
White needs to diversify his back checkers but does not need to make lower points. |
| Move 11 Orange |
|
|
| Pip: 163 | ||
| Pip: 146 | ||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | 3 | 15/7 | 0.164 | |
| 0.6% 15.5% 58.2% 41.8% 11.8% 0.4% | ||||
| * | 2 | 3 | 23/15 | 0.134 (-0.029) |
| 0.5% 13.4% 56.7% 43.3% 11.8% 0.4% | ||||
| 3 | 3 | 20/18 13/7 | 0.106 (-0.058) | |
| 0.6% 15.2% 55.3% 44.7% 13.8% 0.6% | ||||
|
Afraid of ghosts. White might hit lose on his 5 point, not his 2 point. a checker on the 23 point protects against lose hitts on the 20 point. A blot on the barpoint "attacking the stack" is a serious liability. I fail to cover my bar point a second turn... Now I am ahead and I should make my bar |
| White | (3 1) | 8/5* 6/5 | |
|
|
Serves me right. |
| 12. | Orange | (4 3) | bar/21 7/4 |
|
| White | (4 2) | 8/4* 6/4 | |
|
| 13. | Orange | (5 1) | bar/24 15/10 |
|
| White | (5 5) | 6/1*(2) | |
|
|
White just had a positional advantage to compensate for his deficit in the race.... |
| 14. | Orange | (3 1) | Can't move |
|
| White | (5 3) | 17/9 | |
|
| 15. | Orange | (5 2) | bar/18 |
|
| White | (4 2) | 20/16 9/7* | |
|
| 16. | Orange | (6 2) | bar/23 10/4 |
|
| White | (3 3) | 20/17 16/13 5/2*(2) | |
|
|
Nearly as effective would be the "pure" approach safetying the bar and 17 point blot with a point on the 14 and hoping to enter quickly after the imminent tripple shooting down execution on the 16 point lonely blot. (20/14, 16/14, 7/4) |
| 17. | Orange | (4 4) | Can't move |
|
| White | (6 3) | 20/17 13/7 | |
|
| 18. | Orange | (5 4) | bar/16 |
|
| White | (4 3) | 20/17 7/3 | |
|
| 19. | Orange | (6 5) | 16/5 |
|
| White | (6 1) | 17/11 3/2 | |
|
| 20. | Orange | (2 1) | 15/14* 5/3 |
|
| White | (4 2) | bar/23 7/3 | |
|
| 21. | Orange | (3 2) | 15/12 14/12 |
|
| White | (3 1) | 23/20 2/1 | |
|
| 22. | Orange | (4 4) | 13/5*(2) |
|
|
Said James Bond: "It's in the wrist". |
| White | (4 1) | Can't move | |
|
| 23. | Orange | (6 2) | 12/6 12/10 |
|
| White | (6 3) | Can't move | |
|
| 24. | Orange | (5 4) | 10/5 10/6 |
|
| White | (4 2) | bar/23 17/13 | |
|
| 25. | Orange | (4 4) | 10/6 6/2*(3) |
|
| White | (2 1) | Can't move | |
|
| 26. | Orange | (6 1) | 6/off 6/5 |
|
| White | (2 1) | Can't move | |
|
| 27. | Orange | (6 1) | 5/off 5/4 |
|
| White | (5 5) | Can't move | |
|
| 28. | Orange | (5 1) | 5/off 5/4 |
|
| White | (2 1) | Can't move | |
|
| 29. | Orange | (5 1) | 4/off 4/3 |
|
|
No need to be aggressive with 2/1 here. Gammons do not count. Kit resigned. |
| svilo wins 2 points. |
